Dated 2026-10-19. In its October 12 Short Range Outlook, worldsteel forecasts global steel demand of 1,722 million tonnes in 2026, essentially unchanged from 2025, followed by 1.7% growth to 1,752 million tonnes in 2027. April’s forecast had been 0.3% growth in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. These are forecasts, not measured demand or scrap prices.
worldsteel attributes almost all of the downward revision to China. Outside China, it projects growth of 1.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. Its U.S. forecast remains positive at 2.0% and approximately 1.5%, respectively. The October release reflects information available in early September and warns that energy disruption and geopolitical uncertainty could affect the outlook.
SFM’s interpretation for ferrous sellers: use the forecast as context when comparing outlets, rather than as a reason to accept or reject a particular bid. The outlook does not establish that mills will pay a premium for prepared scrap or that scrap prices will move in a particular direction. Local demand, buyer specifications, freight, and the characteristics of each lot still need checking.
For Iron / ferrous feed, a practical preparation checklist is to confirm the buyer’s accepted grade and dimensions, separate materially different streams, document known contamination, and check the delivered economics before committing a load. Keep inspection records alongside weights and shipment terms so competing offers can be compared on the same basis. These are SFM’s operating recommendations, not findings from the demand forecast.
The next useful signals are actual regional steel consumption, purchasing activity, and executable bids for the grade being sold. Keep those observations separate from a global forecast that may be revised again.
Sources
- 2026-10-12 — worldsteel Short Range Outlook October 2026 — current forecast; checked October 19.
- 2026-04-14 — worldsteel Short Range Outlook April 2026 — historical comparison, not a new release.
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